Answer: The Monty Hall Problem

What a lousy number of participation I had for this simple quiz of mine. I guess my blog readers just hate to think too much or too complex.

-sigh-

I'll make this entry brief and short since it did not attract much in the first place.

The answer is, you should SWITCH. Not must, but should - unless you are the type that enjoys going against the law of probability.

My previous entry gave you two choices on three doors, which might not reflect much but if the host was to increase those doors to around 100, I believe that you should be able to see a much clearer picture now.

When you select the first door, you have undoubtedly a probability of 1/100 to strike it right.

Then, the host starts to open up 98 doors, one by one which revealed nothing but 98 goats behind them. Only two doors remain, one which you had initially selected while the other one which the host has mysteriously left closed.

Compare your first choice against the outcome that stands in front of you now. 1/100 versus 1/2. Do you still think that your first guess will bring you any closer to a brand new car?

For those who only understand mathematics equation, below are your tables with the first one calculating the odds if you had stayed:

Door A	Door B	Door C	Result
Car	Goat	Goat	Win
Goat	Car	Goat	Lose
Goat	Goat	Car	Lose

As you can see, you'll only have 1/3 probability in getting the car if you advocated to stay. Let us see what is the result if you switched:

Door A	Door B	Door C	Result
Car	Goat	Goat	Lose
Goat	Car	Goat	Win
Goat	Goat	Car	Win

The second table above is never required but in case that you are sceptical, here is you car key, Einstein.